王天瑜;屈丽娜;倪利智;沈丹红;宁世强;

• 1:中原工学院能源与环境学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为准确地判定岩溶隧道开挖过程中的塌方风险,应用未确知测度理论,建立塌方风险预警模型。首先,根据隧道塌方的影响因素分析,建立隧道开挖塌方风险预警的三级指标体系,选取年平均降雨量、单轴抗压强度、围岩渗透系数、岩溶直径、隧道埋深、开挖工法等18项指标作为预警指标,包括9个定量指标和9个定性指标,划分5个预警等级。其次,构建各定量指标和定性指标的分级标准,构造各定量指标的未确知测度函数,利用信息熵理论计算各指标权重,依照置信度识别准则进行塌方风险预警等级判定。最后,选取某岩溶区隧道工程为实例,验证该预警模型的适用性。结果表明:该隧道开挖塌方风险预警等级为Ⅲ级,即为橙色预警等级,该结果与实际情况较吻合,说明隧道开挖过程中存在较大坍塌危险,隧道内应配备专职地质灾害安全员,并对地质灾害进行不间断监测。该预警方法能够为提前采取塌方风险防范措施和编制应急预案提供理论依据,也为隧道塌方风险预警提供新的思路。

关键词(KeyWords)： 隧道开挖;塌方风险;未确知测度理论;预警指标;置信度识别

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(51804355)

作者(Author): 王天瑜;屈丽娜;倪利智;沈丹红;宁世强;

Email:

DOI: 10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2020.0213

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